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New Quinnipiac PA Poll Numbers

April 15, 2008 7:48 AM

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., maintains a 50 - 44 percent lead over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., among likely primary voters, reports a Quinnipiac University poll released just now.

Those numbers are unchanged from April 8 numbers, though the poll was taken over the weekend -- after news broke of Obama's controversial remarks on "bitter" small-town Pennsylvanians clinging to guns, God, and xenophobia.

Twenty-six percent of Clinton supporters say that would vote for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., should Obama win the nomination, while 19% of Obama supporters say they would go GOP should Clinton win.

Other numbers:

White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent;

Women voters for Clinton 54 -40;

Voter over 45 for Clinton 55 - 40;

Black voters for Obama 86 - 8 percent;

Men voters for Obama 51 - 43 percent;

Voters under 45 for Obama 55 - 39.

Says Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute: "Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama's drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago.  She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign. She even gained back some ground in the Philadelphia suburbs - the area where elections are won and lost in the Keystone State.  She now trails Obama by just two points in this critical area, while she was 11 points behind a week ago."

- jpt

April 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (88)

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Hey, where is that Annie Oakly Hilry? She better get down to our small towns in PA and show us those millions of Columbian trade dollars hidden in her swiss accounts. Liar, cheat!!!

Posted by: Annie Oakley | Apr 15, 2008 11:34:04 PM

CNN has the LA/HUFFINGTON poll with Clinton at 5% lead. As soon as the other states AND PA voters really listen to the words of Mr. Obama, the Clinton lead will skyrocket. Mr. Obama's irresponsible oral thoughts about " gun toting -bible clinging" small town USA was a direct "slap in the face" to many of US. Now, I have a greater respect for my Bible and my guns! They are saying that Obama supposedly voted to ban the sale and
manufacturing of hand guns while in Illinois running for the senate (?).
Sen. Clinton believes in the SECOND AMENDMENT AND loves her religion/faith like the majority of Americans. Obama will NOT take my faith OR my guns!!! Nor is my soul" BROKEN" as Michelle Obama states. With these two, who needs a pastor.... Please quit preaching to the American citizens!! We are Hard Working, Proud and Compassionate!

Posted by: DaneNM | Apr 15, 2008 10:24:21 PM

Like every poll that I've seen they seem to favor Obama...when the actual election comes Clinton will win by 10 to 15 points...Undecided will break her way.

The thing is the Democratic party is split 50%^ 50% Obama supporters will never believe the truth about him...But Independents and Republicans are moving to McCains camp...

It annoys me that so many people are so easily swayed by polls and demographics...they have been notoriously inaccurate in this election...Hillary could very well be gaining more ground than you think....It usually takes about a week for it to sink in before the electorate really moves.

Posted by: Jackie | Apr 15, 2008 9:41:53 PM

Pledged delegates may have seemed a reasonable indicator with a race that wasn't so close AND had Obama gotten more of his wins in Primary states - especially had he been able to capture at least a few of the bigger states. But, he hasn't. More importantly, if indeed there is a shift in these final contests away from Obama, the DNC needs to face up to the fact that he's not electable in November.

- Wait a second, what am I saying? The DNC already knows he's unelectable, they just don't know how to run this "end game."

Posted by: s. valenti | Apr 15, 2008 3:56:01 PM

Even with a victory in Pennsylvania, CQ Politics predicts that Hillary will barely beat Obama in the state's all important delegate race.

Based on an extensive analysis of the 19 congressional districts in Pennsylvania, CQ projects that Clinton will take home 53 delegates to Obama's 50 - out of the pool of district-level delegates that are up for grabs on April 22nd. In all, Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the national convention.

Posted by: watson | Apr 15, 2008 2:16:44 PM

Herta,
Lay down the pipe. That's just absurd. Apparently you didn't read the article. Clinton reversed the erosion in critical areas by 9 points. This poll shows favorable trends in Clinton's favor. However, given this reported factor, this overall poll report becomes suspect, because that means the poll number did not stay the same, although they are being reported as the same.

It's not clear why ABC new cherry picked this poll, as other newer polls show Clinton crushing Obama. It doesn't really matter, though. When the poll of polls average begins to show the trendline of Clinton crushing Obama, then the press will report it as if its news.

Bottom line, Obama will have wasted almost 15 million dollars on ads, having outspent Hillary by a factor of 5 to 1.

Why can't he close the deal with this torrent of spending?
========================================
Obama, better start paying that street money!
Obama got paid!
The street people need to get paid!
========================================

Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Apr 15, 2008 1:44:31 PM

I see the Rev.Wright was at a FUNERAL slamming FOX NEWS, my favorite station of late. That man is nothing but class.

Posted by: tww | Apr 15, 2008 1:22:38 PM

Watson,
Did he make that endorsement before or after the announcement of the Auchi factor? Just curious. I'm amazed at how much slime is connected to Obama, and yet the politicos keep flocking to him. They are looking to pile on the future payola.
========================================
It's Obama's turn to get paid!
========================================

Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Apr 15, 2008 1:21:07 PM

Watson.

No surprise.
Everytime he is down ,either he asks for endorsement or his backers tries to find it for him.
They spoil him too much.
Bob Casey is going to defense about his Bitter comments instead of himself.

Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 15, 2008 1:18:40 PM


SurveyUSA | Likely Voters | Clinton | Obama | Undecided

Rasmussen | 741 | 371 | 304 | 67

SurveyUSA | 1,600 | 864 | 640 | 96

Quinnipiac | 2,103 | 1,052 | 925 | 126

Zogby | 1,002 | 471 | 431 | 100

Susquehanna | 500 | 200 | 185 | 115

InsiderAdvantage | 681 | 327 | 259 | 95

Total | 6,627 | 3,284 | 2,744 | 599

Weighted Averages | 100.0% | 49.6% | 41.4% | 9.0%

Looking at the weighted average of the polls at RCP, Clinton 8.1% lead over Obama with 9% undecided. Clinton has performed better in the days leading up to the election with the undecided vote.

Posted by: LOM | Apr 15, 2008 1:14:45 PM

LOM,

You are right.

Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 15, 2008 1:13:27 PM

That tells me he will win Philadelphia and not much more.

Posted by: Tina D | Apr 15, 2008 1:13:11 PM

And another PA endorsement for Obama:

"The last statewide elected Democratic official to endorse in the presidential race, Auditor General Jack Wagner, will throw his lot in with Sen. Barack Obama this afternoon in Washington, Pa. Wagner, a former state senator, is a popular "Casey Democrat" pol from western Pennsylvania, which demographically is regarded as hospitable terrain for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton."

Posted by: watson | Apr 15, 2008 1:11:39 PM

Haven't we learned we can not trust poll numbers. Especially when it involves a biracial and woman candidate, people lie. Bring on PA.

Posted by: Ken | Apr 15, 2008 1:08:59 PM

morningside -- How can the DNC play fair when Donna "I'm Neutral But In the Tank for Obama" Brazile in the #2 spot?

Posted by: LOM | Apr 15, 2008 1:08:19 PM

John -- I think dragging this primary on also brings out the worst traits in Obama as well, which for the American people, is an equally good thing.

Who cares if they don't like her? You can't please everyone. However, what specifically has she done to them? Is she guilty by association for her husband?

Posted by: LOM | Apr 15, 2008 1:06:24 PM

Obama will be limping into Denver. The question is will the DNC try some sleazy maneuver to reverse his slide - like throw some more 3rd tier Democrats in front of the bus - and have them endorse Obama before next Tuesday.

I hope not. The DNC better play fair. Large numbers of reliably democratic voters are just standing by waiting to see how they handle this final week. The voters of Pennsylvania deserve to decide for themselves who is the better candidate.

If the left wing of the DNC tries anything designed to alter our perception that Obama's condescending comments are not a huge problem that goes directly to his electability, we are ready to bolt the democratic party and support McCain.

Since Obama can't pick up republicans or independents, the DNC can't afford to lose any democrats by overtly pushing one candidate over the other.

Posted by: morningside | Apr 15, 2008 12:59:53 PM

LOM: Why don’t the big shots wade in and stop this donnybrook – Maybe it is because the Kennedy’s, Pelosi, Kerry, the Carters and Gores really don’t like Hillary Clinton. Over the years, she has done the dirty to most of them and she seems to inspire a deep contempt from those that she has worked with. While letting the primary drag on is serving to introduce new guy Obama to the electorate, it is also bringing out all the worst traits from Hillary. After this she will be so damaged she will never return.

Posted by: John | Apr 15, 2008 12:56:35 PM

crisis08,

He can't manage to win the GE, that is why he hasn't been able to close the deal on the nomination.

Posted by: LOM | Apr 15, 2008 12:47:59 PM

Geevil,

Yes, I wonder how he will manage to win in the GE .
The GE only count Primary in order to win, so far he won most of Caucuses.

Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 15, 2008 12:44:42 PM

Dann: Hillary overplayed her hand - Yea, and it was only a pair of deuces.

Posted by: John | Apr 15, 2008 12:38:59 PM

Despite Obama's lead in states won, pledged delegates and popular vote, the flood gates haven't opened for him when it comes to superdelegates. If this is such a sure thing, why don't they throw their support to him and end it once and for all?

They have a responsibility to put their best chance of winning the White House on the ticket. Simply put: Obama is unelectable against McCain.

Posted by: LOM | Apr 15, 2008 12:38:11 PM

Sorry,

I meant..
from this race

Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 15, 2008 12:37:31 PM

@Bill,

....if Obama this bad why he is leading,,,

He is new, that's why people don't know about him very much .
The longer he stays in this campaign the more people will know about him.
That's why his backers want Hillary to drop out from this rare so he will get a free ride to the GE.
But that doesn't mean he will be smooth in the GE, McCain will dig up everything about him.

Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 15, 2008 12:36:20 PM

There is no doubt that Clinton cannot close the gap in pledged delegates between now and the end of the primary season. That is not being disputed. However, if she can maintain the same gap from now until the end, Obama's overall margin will continue to decrease.

The fact remains that both candidates need superdelegates to put them over the top. And with a margin of about 3% in pledged delegates, the superdelegates won't have to worry about turning over the "will of the people."

Posted by: LOM | Apr 15, 2008 12:35:12 PM

At the CQ Politics site there is new and detailed analysis of the delegate count in the Pennsylvania districts.

It shows that even if Clinton wins with a pretty comfortable margin in the overall percentage, the proportional representation system makes that the net result in delegates won't mean much for Obama's now insurmountable lead in pledged delegates.

Check it out, the article "Clinton Rates Slim Edge Over Obama in PA District Delegate Race".

Posted by: ken | Apr 15, 2008 12:28:05 PM

Hillary overplayed her hand. Nuff said.

Posted by: Dann | Apr 15, 2008 12:27:32 PM

dl: So, if Obama can't close the deal, get the required number of delegates, should we change the rules to accommodate him and make it look like he is the winner although he hasn't actually really won the nomination but he has come kinda close??? Do we want the person who wins caucus states that never go Democratic and can't win the states that always swing or go democratic? In what parallel universe does this make sense that he can win the general election?

Posted by: AmazonTraveler | Apr 15, 2008 12:23:12 PM

"RCP avarages of the national polls"

RCP averages are a pile of nonsense. People who look at an average of averages don't understand math.

Posted by: LOM | Apr 15, 2008 12:22:20 PM

"So, If he outspends her 4:1 and still loses by 10%, which looks likely, howis it this man is supposed to win a general election."

Very simple. By attracting a helluvalot more voters than McCain. As is pretty much everybody's (Republicans among them) expectation.

For a long time now Obama is doing better against McCain than Clinton, in the RCP avarages of the national polls, so there's not an argument in favor of Cinton to be found here.

Besides, according to the Clinton campaign (Wolfson) today Obama is outspending them 2 to 1, not 4 to 1.

PA was all about the popular vote, remember? If Obama will be able to hold to his lead in the popular vote (besides his lead in pledged delegates) even John Murtha will vote for him in Denver.

That's where Obama's spending is about. Besides, he got the money to do it, while Hillary will be in DEEP financial troubles at the end of this month. Mark my words.

Posted by: ken | Apr 15, 2008 12:13:53 PM

Sorry, he can't win the White House.

Posted by: s.b. | Apr 15, 2008 12:01:37 PM

"I laugh at the polls, who usually poll between 500 and 2,000 people."

It's called sampling and there is a point of diminishing returns on the margin of error (about 2,000 people).

Posted by: LOM | Apr 15, 2008 12:00:30 PM

So, If he outspends her 4:1 and still loses by 10%, which looks likely, howis it this man is supposed to win a general election.

If he can't win middle America, he can't win the white house. Especially when Florida is a write off.

Why nominate him. No one has ever spent this much in Pennsylvania or anywhere else. if he can't win when he has't been vetted and he has spent that much money, it's political suicide for the dems to nominate him.

He can't win the whtie house.

Posted by: s.b. | Apr 15, 2008 12:00:16 PM

if you all have followed the primarys thus far survey usa has consistantly been one of the most accurate,california ,ohio and texas they were one of the very few that got them right.today they just released penn and yesterday indiana both of which show obama going down in flames,so dont get too hopeful

Posted by: don tufts | Apr 15, 2008 11:56:31 AM

"watson, correction... that's

Clinton 50%
Obama 41%

in today's Rasmussen poll."

I gave the numbers (and the Obama jump) in their Daily Tracking Poll, which is their daily poll on the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

Your numbers are the PA poll, you're right about them, it's + 9 for Clinton.

Nationally it's + 9 for Obama today, after Clinton's short + 1 lead two days ago.

Posted by: watson | Apr 15, 2008 11:51:40 AM

watson, correction... that's

Clinton 50%
Obama 41%

in today's Rasmussen poll.

Posted by: HoosierSue | Apr 15, 2008 11:37:11 AM

I can imagine a new 3 a.m. ad where the phone rings and rings and rings and Hillary is too hungover to answer it.

She really blasted that shot down. Well, practice makes perfect. It does get cold in those duck blinds you know..

Posted by: Rob | Apr 15, 2008 11:18:39 AM

Let me put it this way, I would vote for Obama before I would vote for Hillary...

Posted by: Bill | Apr 15, 2008 11:16:18 AM

Hillary is the best Candidate for the Democratic Party. The majority of the voters Nation wide want Hillary.

Posted by: seah | Apr 15, 2008 11:13:34 AM

I laugh at the polls, who usually poll between 500 and 2,000 people. Come on people.....the article says she has closed the gap in Philly area to 2 points, you don't seriously believe that?

This race in Penn is going to be close and I think Obama is going to win in Penn and Indiana and blow her out in North Carolina because she won't quit even after losing Penn.... but will be forced to quit after getting beat in Indiana and NC.

Posted by: BK | Apr 15, 2008 11:10:01 AM

The Clintons are liars, check the records, Bosnia, Columbia, China, NAFTA, and a long list of issues, if Obama was this bad why is he leading in states won and delegate numbers, I'm not for Obama, but I would never vote for another Clinton...

Posted by: Bill | Apr 15, 2008 11:06:14 AM

I bet Hillary will have another shot and a beer today.

Posted by: Jjay | Apr 15, 2008 11:04:49 AM

You know it isn't Obama that needed to "close the deal" with this state... ...this state had all the earmarking of Hillary's strongest situation and with all the things thrown at Obama...Hillary needed to close the deal on a "big" win in a state almost designed for her demographic...and guess what ...she is not closing the deal with this small of a win.

Obama is the next President...and I am very happy. The world is going to be a better place.

Posted by: dl | Apr 15, 2008 11:00:52 AM

Dont put to much stock in the polls >>>
I heard that the woman who were going to vote for lying Hilly are now NOTTTTTTTTTTTTTT so watch out.

Posted by: h | Apr 15, 2008 10:58:45 AM

Obama makes a 5 point jump in today's Rasumussen Tracking Poll.

It's Obama 50% - Clinton 41%

Two days ago Clinton had a 1% lead, at the height of the "Bitter" storm.

Posted by: watson | Apr 15, 2008 10:57:40 AM

Bill: did you see the latest numbers Hillary? Hillary: Gulp....yes Bill I did...bartender!! make that whiskey sour a double!!

Posted by: mims | Apr 15, 2008 10:49:18 AM

"What these numbers really show is that despite outspending her 5 to 1 - Obama can't close the deal!"

According to the Clinton campaign today it is actually 2 to 1.

The main difference is that Clinton can't afford to spend this kind of money. April will be a financial debacle for her campaign. She has been asking for special PA donations for 2 weeks now at her official wbesite, but the total donations for TV ads are still under the 2 million. That is going to be a huge and very real problem for her.


Posted by: watson | Apr 15, 2008 10:42:39 AM

Obama will take NC because of the black vote. But he cannot win there in November.

Posted by: geevill | Apr 15, 2008 10:30:11 AM

Herta:"PA, Indiana and NC need to step up and deliver the nomination to Hillary and they will do just that."

Obama has a 20 point lead in today's NC poll... and 15,4 point RCP average lead...

She'd better forget about winning NC (134 delegates at stake).

Remember the polls in California...hmmm

Posted by: AmazonTraveler | Apr 15, 2008 10:24:56 AM

What these numbers really show is that despite outspending her 5 to 1 - Obama can't close the deal!

Posted by: s. valenti | Apr 15, 2008 10:11:49 AM

With all due respect to Sen. Obama although he has spent four to one against Sen. Clinton in the state of Pennsylvania and many other places, he is failing to win especially any of the larger states. And come November there will be no causes to be manipulated by small groups of ardent supports. Under these circumstance to nominate Sen. Barack Obama would be a huge mistake! And all things considered, winning the White House for the democrats is still with Sen. Hillary Clinton!

Posted by: charleychaplin | Apr 15, 2008 10:02:40 AM

kirk - you are correct. McCain is hitting Obama now, largely because he would rather face Clinton. Nobody could beat an Obama/Nunn ticket.

Posted by: Mokopane | Apr 15, 2008 9:46:38 AM

hmmm,according to Quinnipiac the polling was taken friday, saturday, and sunday.

Most people didn't hear about the story til Sunday or monday, so be careful what you all hope this means

Posted by: Tessa | Apr 15, 2008 9:46:05 AM

Is is safe to call this number the "Clinton PA Over-step"?

Posted by: Caucus83 | Apr 15, 2008 9:41:00 AM

I think Obama could be the nominee but he will not gain the white and this is what the left wing nuts do every time we get a real chance to we have a real good chance to win the house this should have been are year all the big money out in San Fransico they won't have to worry they will be fine. The big problem is Obama can say what he wants but he has lost the white vote in the states he was planing to win we have our own class war going on in are race he just does not get it. His remarks have changed peoples minds already and this is just a primary wait until the GE the republicans will line up. His wifes words will even be used against him she has made many remarks that the republicans have put aside until the GE.

Posted by: Bishop | Apr 15, 2008 9:38:46 AM

If there's anyone who after these days could proudly say "I'm still standing" it must be Obama in Pennsylvania. What an incredibly tough politician he is. I'm sure the GOP is getting more scared every day after seeing how Obama rises in the eye of the media storms about Wright and Bittergate. Part of it must be his "counterpunching style" as Politico's Ben Smith put it. If you hit at Obama, you better duck quickly or it might hurt.

Posted by: kirk | Apr 15, 2008 9:38:28 AM

Did you watch the latest add from the Clinton campaign? They are now telling folks directly to be offended by Obama's comment (comment which most people now call insightful and empathetic) as if Pennsylvanians don't have a mind of their own.

Posted by: TK | Apr 15, 2008 9:32:37 AM

Monica: It ain't news. They might have met, but neither of them remembers having done so. Even if they did meet briefly, there were no laws broken, no ethics forsaken.

Obama/Nunn '08 '12

Posted by: Mokopane | Apr 15, 2008 9:28:24 AM

Jake...WHY is it always questioned as to whether Obama can win the White vote...YET NEVER questioned is how Clinton is only getting 8% of the Black vote?! HOW can SHE be electable when she has turned off 92% of Black voters? Be fair, Jake.


Posted by: cathy | Apr 15, 2008 9:27:48 AM


Obama has been attacked from three directions (The three Clintons, and Grandpa McCain; 4 to 1) and he is still standing upright!.

Whoever is thinking deeply!! Who has a momentum??? Obama of course. And once we are through with PA and is behind 2 or 3 points, we all should agree, the man (Obama) is quite exceptional!! He deserves what he has been fighting for.

Posted by: Peace | Apr 15, 2008 9:26:01 AM

The numbers confirm that more and more Pennsylvanians see through Hillary at a glance. Her hysterical effort to portray herself as one of "little people", while bashing Obama as "elitist", will probably backlash on her in the remaining days before the PA primary.

Folks in PA are no fools. Hillary is a fantastically wealthy, union-busting, condescending corporate board member with a privileged background who's trying to convince them that she's more "in touch" than a guy whose relatives live in huts.

And they may have seen this quote again:

"You know, I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas, but what I decided to do was fulfill my profession."

That was Hillary during her husband's 1992 campaign.

Here's what they can infer from those comments: 1) Hillary thinks homemaking is beneath her. 2) Hillary thinks that a woman who doesn't pursue a profession is wasting her life. 3) Hillary hates working class families. OK, maybe "hate" is too strong -- but she's certainly shown a willingness to work against them.

Take for instance her days as a union-busting board member for Wal-Mart, or her partnership in the notoriously anti-union Rose Law Firm. What can we infer from those associations? That Hillary Clinton hates union workers, naturally. Again, maybe "hate" isn't the right word. But she's certainly shown a willingness to suppress and litigate against them.

And now Hillary is tossing back shots with the working folks of Indiana, making believe she's a gun-toting huntress, as if we'd forget that she's been one of the most staunchly anti-gun politicians in Washington since the 1990s.

Isn't it adorable? She's pretending to be one of the little people! The same little people she's belittled and screwed over in the past: whether it was through NAFTA, Wal-Mart, or her own elitist, out-of-touch comments.

Posted by: trent | Apr 15, 2008 9:25:45 AM

Obama all the Way!

Posted by: Lookup | Apr 15, 2008 9:25:31 AM

Bitter, schmitter. Why are so many news outlets ignoring the fact that Obama and his wife were seen at Tony Rezko's swanky 2004 party for the Saudi billionaire Nadhmi Auchi? You know, the one tied to Saddam Hussein, the one appealing his fraud conviction in France. The one who funneled millions to Rezko who, coincidentally donated money to Obama! In fact, some of that money, coincidentally, apparently came Rezko's way just in time for Rezko's wife to buy the land right next door to Obama's house.

What a coincidence.

It's in both Chicago papers. But the national media don't seem to find it very newsworthy. Nope, not newsworthy when a presidential candidate is, ONCE AGAIN, tied to slimy people and questionable transactions (and questionable judgment).

Posted by: monica | Apr 15, 2008 9:24:19 AM

Who the hell cares about polls? There is absolutely no friggin' way the evil Clintons can surpass Obama's delegate lead and there's no way that the super delegates will vote against the will of the people. When Obama selects Webb as his VP, all of this nonsense about not getting the middle/lower class white vote will all change. He'll put Richardson in his cabinet which will secure the Hispanic vote and Obama already has the youth vote of all ethnicities and the black vote. Put a fork in both Hillary & McSame...they're done!

OBAMA/WEBB '08

Posted by: Roxanne | Apr 15, 2008 9:24:07 AM

Obama tried albeit somewhat unsuccessfully to answer a question in a heartfelt way that like Negros of slavery time who also turned to Religion & Music due to oppression and hard times and that small town America has very little to look forward to and so too turned to religion and hunting as a normal outlet and sometimes blamed their plight on immigrants! This excercise in "honest" judgment has been blown out of all proportions and taken up by Hillary & McCain and some in the Media to exploit for political gain, albeit with dishonesty and distorted statements to demean Obama for being honest. We have to asks ourselves as Americans "would we rather have politicians that lie to us or ones that tell us the truth no matter what?" Hillary's current assertion that her father taught her to "shoot ducks" behind the cottage that her grandfather built on Lake Winona as a little girl smells alot like "Bosnian Sniper Fire!" And, now we have Bill Clinton going around with his current False take on "bitterness" as another example of another "lying politician", excuse my blatantness...with the following...

B. Clinton "[s]ays at campaign railly in Corydon, Indiana that throughout seven stops in North Carolina, 'Everywhere I go there are all these people with signs, saying I’m not bitter - I’m not bitter.' ABC’s Sarah Amos says his comments were well-received but 'not entirely accurate.' For instance, she says there were no signs at his rallies saying 'I’m not bitter,' as he claimed." -- This political couple has No Shame!

However, in light of the current fire storm and questionning and psychoanalyzing about the "bitterness" of small town America, maybe Obama has done us some good and we can finally bring or shed some light on just how bitter (or not) we really are and better yet -- the "Root Cause"!


Posted by: Angellight | Apr 15, 2008 9:23:29 AM

geevill

The reason we are obsessed with polls is because Clitnon still has a slim chance of winning if she can arck up 65-35 victories across the board. if she wins by more than 20 in Pennsylvania, it could start an aavlanche that can alter this race in her favor. Obama needs, needs, needs to hold her down to below 15 if possible.

By the way that SUSA poll is not good news for Clinton. SUSA had her leading by 18 a week ago. I have a suspicion the Obama camp have a trick up their sleeve for Pennsylvania. They seem too confident IMO. That's why Clinton is hammering this bitter comment incessantly.

Posted by: Kevin | Apr 15, 2008 9:20:09 AM

I know Quinnipiac is certainly the best Pennsylvania pollster in the land. But even though i am an Obama supporter, i still think that Hillary will win Pennsylvania by double digits. I know they said there was no statistical noise on April 12-13 (the same days ARG held their polls), but this bitter comment has to hurt a little. I think it is safe, however, to toss out that ARG poll (ARG has been fluctuating so violently, their method must be way off). Keep an eye out for PPD poll (they are good too). I also think this debate tomorrow will be the most influential debate these two candidates will ever have (if Obama can win that debate decisively, he can make this race very tight. If Clinton wins, expect a Clinton blowout in Pennsylvania). If Obama holds her to single digits, i think this race is over for her, unless Obama ahnds her another gift in the way of a gaffe. If she wins by less than 15, then Obama has a chance to end the race by winning big in NC and eeking out a victory in Indiana (I just don't see Clitnon winning Indiana, for some reason. I was down there a week ago. Obama's ground game from Chicago gives him a decided edge). If she wins Pennsylvania by 20, the race is a dead-heat until NC and Indiana. I still think we have gotten to the point where these two candidates HAVE To be on the same ticket for the good of the party.

Posted by: Kevin | Apr 15, 2008 9:17:14 AM

Why are Obama supporters so obsessed with polls? I thought he has the nomination sewed up? I thought he didn't care about polls?

Posted by: geevill | Apr 15, 2008 9:16:26 AM

The latest SUSA poll has Clinton up by 14 points.

Posted by: Rajesh | Apr 15, 2008 9:10:38 AM

"This is a huge lead for Hillary"

who had a 20+ lead only recently in PA.

BTW if outspending and ads made all the difference, Romney would have been the Republican nominee. Plus, the Clintons have been campaigning in PA for almost two decades now. The strength of the Obama support amazes me. It it stays as it stands today, PA is going to be an embarrasment for Clinton. Her supporters may still be cheering, but her financial donors will step back.

Posted by: herta | Apr 15, 2008 9:06:08 AM

This is definately some good news for Obama...

With bad coverage this past weekend and he's down by single digits

In a state designed for Hillary Clinton in which she needs to win by 15+

Thats definately some good news

Congrats Barrack

Posted by: Vanessa | Apr 15, 2008 9:04:08 AM

PA voters could end this tiresome primary process by putting Obama over the top now. Clinton cannot win anyway, so it is time to fight McCain.

Posted by: Mokopane | Apr 15, 2008 9:03:47 AM

"PA, Indiana and NC need to step up and deliver the nomination to Hillary and they will do just that."

Obama has a 20 point lead in today's NC poll... and 15,4 point RCP average lead...

She'd better forget about winning NC (134 delegates at stake).

Posted by: herta | Apr 15, 2008 8:57:40 AM

This is a huge lead for Hillary considering every night working class Pennsylvanians are being bombarded with media manipulation in their homes. If the media wasn't so irresponsible the gap would widen further favoring Hillary. Looks like there are some STRONG, independent thinking Pennsylvanians out there who regardless of what they're being fed by the press and Obama camp REALLY know who is the most competent leader of the two/three.

Contrary to what the media and Obama want the voters to believe this race has been an uphill battle from the beginning for Hillary. She has withstood a massive media campaign against her. SHE is impressively vetted. Obama would have cowered and fallen apart long ago if he had to go through the same media torture. I hold him equally responsible for not challenging the media bias. If he is this so call "uniter" than long ago he would have spoken out against the blatantly unfair coverage (yeah, right).

Posted by: catherine in nm | Apr 15, 2008 8:57:08 AM

these numbers have less to do with the candidates as it does to the color of obama's skin--his bitter comment did not come out right--but he has talked about this issue before--(ie charlie rose show-his speech at the 2004 convention--his speech in philadelphia--bill clinton also spoke about this in 1992,2007 on charlie rose and in his booke--this idea of wedge issue's and how voters do not believe gov can help there economic issue so they vote on wedge issues-like gun rights, immigration, same sex marriage, abortion etc. and the republicans win on these issues and we get talks cuts for the rich--no healthcare--no help for urban areas--intolerance for pro choice gay rights-immigrants---but the bottom line is the eco polices are for the corporations and not the middle class--this was what he was trying to say--

Posted by: william | Apr 15, 2008 8:56:45 AM

And a few points will lose him Ohio and Michigan in Nov.

He can't win a general election against the Republican attack machine.

Democrats are so foolish. I'm sorry. They have no hope if this man is nominated while excluding Michigan and Florida.

A few points gives the White House to the Republicans.

Posted by: s.b. | Apr 15, 2008 8:54:46 AM

For me this seems like horrible deja vu. I think Obama will be the democratic nominee, but I am seriously afraid that he will lose the general election. I see him going down that same horrible road that Gore went down in 2000. He will lose middle America to the Republicans because he comes off as aloof, out of touch and snobby. And he doesn't even have half the resume/experience Gore did. I hope I am wrong, but it happened to Gore and to Kerry. Is Obama our number 3?

Posted by: Justina | Apr 15, 2008 8:54:30 AM

BKMC...yes I am surprised that more news didn't come of Hillary gussling beer and shots at a bar...Certainly didn't look too Presidential or lady like.

Posted by: cindyct | Apr 15, 2008 8:54:00 AM

maritza...so true...the media fuels these things because nothing REALLY important is happening right now.( slow news week). My relatives in PA are more interested in how the candidates are going to help them get jobs then the "bitter". BTW, they did say they are bitter...

Posted by: cindyct | Apr 15, 2008 8:52:30 AM

Hillary will fall flat on her face because of the Shotwiskeybeergate, she is drunk and nobody will trust her with a wiskey and a beer in her hands in the White House. Who wants an alcoholic drunk president? Hillary the Bosnian General is unelectable. Period. God bless Obama and God bless America. OBAMA08.

Posted by: BKMC | Apr 15, 2008 8:52:04 AM

Virginia...evidently you don't know Obama very well, and are listening to the VERY bias news media.
Most comments regarding negative things are taken out of context. Obama is a man of God and this country cannot accept that. He speaks what he truly believes this country needs...a christian in the White House. I don't believe he will get the nomination because too many in this country are either prejudgeous against him or they are afraid of the truth..

Posted by: cindyct | Apr 15, 2008 8:49:18 AM

Since the polls give Hillary a 6 point advantage in PA, she will win easily by 15 points. Her decisive victory will put an end to the “Obama Myth” that he is the declared winner because he is “ahead” in the “media election world”, although millions of Americans haven’t yet voted in the real primary. The media and some super delegates apparently believe that “not winning by Obama is a win if he is close to winning. There is no rule in the party process that says “close” wins. Once again, Obama may get a pass of not being a true winner but having the appearance of winning. If the super delegates elect Obama based on his winning delegates by “caucus carnival” in states that Democrats don’t win anyway, then we face four more years with the Republicans. Without a win in any significant large state, he would be slammed by McCain. PA, Indiana and NC need to step up and deliver the nomination to Hillary and they will do just that.

Posted by: AmazonTraveler | Apr 15, 2008 8:31:50 AM

I would like to ask Obama or his'handlers' about who or what they attribute the hatred (not bitterness) that they attribute to Jeremiah's rantings and ravings & also Michelle's remarks--is it bitterness against the whites or just against anyone that doesn't look like they do?

Posted by: virginia | Apr 15, 2008 8:26:32 AM

Those numbers would be different if the news wasn't so pro-Obama.

Look at how the news is reluctant to show anything about race. Rev. Wright clips appear w/o the sound on and the uproar over bitter remarks when bitter or religion or guns isn't the issue.

Is this Obama calling the people in small towns that don't vote for him bigots? "antipathy toward people who aren't like them"

Seems like it to me, I'm just curious why the press is on the guns and religion part of his statement and avoiding the racist part. The press needs to get a little backbone.

He has simply enjoyed too much success too soon and is suffering from a minor messiah complex much like you see in rock stars.

Obama in that recording was responding to a question by those California folks asking why those small towns weren't supporting him.....

Obama was faced with a segment of voters that didn't rush to form a pep rally for him, so he figured there MUST be something seriously wrong with THEM


Larry B

San Antonio, TX


Posted by: Larry B | Apr 15, 2008 8:17:59 AM

@Maritza - Can you provide a link to that? That's a story I missed :-)

Posted by: DJShay | Apr 15, 2008 8:17:26 AM

Interesting that Hillary only spoke for 5 minutes at the Philadelphia dinner because people were not paying attention yet people really listened to Obama's 25 minute speech during the same dinner.

Posted by: maritza | Apr 15, 2008 8:15:33 AM

I think that Obama will slip a bit in Pennsylvania because of Bittergate but overall I agree with the governor Ed Rendell when he said that it will only be a difference of a few points but not that much difference.

I think the media is more involved in Bittergate than the actual people on the ground in Pennsylvania.

Posted by: maritza | Apr 15, 2008 8:04:44 AM

If you consider the tempests created by Clinton, McCain plus the MSM from Obama's "bitter" gaffe, the conclusion must be that Obama has a pretty strong support now in PA. Strong enough to fuel Clinton's great fear that she will NOT be able to win PA with double digits.

And as we know Quinnipiac is one the most accurate and experienced pollsters for PA out there.

Posted by: herta | Apr 15, 2008 8:00:58 AM

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